EUR/CHF’s stronger than expected rebound last week suggests that fall from 0.9660 has already completed at 0.9218, ahead of 0.9204 low. Rebound from 0.9218 is either a corrective move, or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204. In either case, further rally is expected this week as long as 0.9336 support holds, towards 0.9660. However, break of 0.9336 will bring retest of 0.9204/18 support zone.
In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9555) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in force in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9962) holds.
