EUR/CHF gyrated lower last week but lacked convincing momentum. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 0.9445 will resume the rebound from 0.9218, either as a corrective move or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204. However, break of 0.9274 will suggest that that recovery has completed, and bring retest of 0.9204/18 support zone.
In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9555) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in force in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9919) holds.
