EUR/CHF’s extended rebound last week argues that fall from 0.9452 has completed at 0.9208. But as a temporary top was formed at 0.9325, initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.9325 will target 0.9371 resistance. Break there will pave the way back to 0.9452 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.9257 will revive near term bearishness, and bring retest of 0.9204/8 support zone.
In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9383). Firm break of 0.9204 will resume the whole down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. However, break of 0.9452 resistance will now be the first sign of medium term bottoming.
In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in progress in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9820) holds.
