EUR/CHF edged higher to 0.9394 last week but retreated since then. Nevertheless, pullback was so far consolidated at 0.9319 with subsequent recovery. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.9394 will resume the rebound from 0.9178 to 0.9452 structural resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, decisive break of 0.9311 support will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9178 low.
In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF has breached long term falling channel resistance as the rebound from 0.9278 extends. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9316) will indicate medium term bottoming at 0.9178, and suggests that it’s already in larger scale rebound. Further break of 0.9452 resistance will bring stronger medium term rally towards 0.9928 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 W EMA will retain bearishness for another fall through 0.9278 at a later stage.
In the long term picture, overall long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as falling 55 M EMA (now at 0.9785) holds.
