EUR/CHF edged higher to 0.9265 but was rejected by 0.9264 resistance and retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 0.9179 support holds. On the upside, above 0.9228 minor resistance will bring retest of 0.9265 first. Firm break of 0.9264/5 will resume the rally from 0.8979 to 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379.
In the bigger picture, the break of medium term falling trend line resistance indicates that 0.8979 is already a medium term bottom. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, rise from there should at least be reversing the fall from 0.9928, with prospect of developing into a medium term up trend. Firm break of 0.9394 resistance will add more credence to this case. For now risk will remain on the upside as long as 0.9094 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the long term picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9407 support turned resistance (2022 low) holds. However, firm break of 0.9407 will argue that the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has completed with five waves down to 0.8979. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 0.8979 at 1.0135 in the medium term.
