EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF’s rebound from 1.1445 resumed last week and surged to as high as 1.1740. The development suggests that pull back from 1.1832 is already completed at 1.1445. As a temporary top is formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. With 1.1630 minor support intact, further rise still expected retest 1.1832 high. At this point, we’ll stay cautious strong resistance from there to bring another fall. Corrective pattern from 1.1832 might still have an attempt on 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372) before completion. On the downside, below 1.1630 minor support will target 1.1445 low again.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we’d still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

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