EUR/GBP’s decline from 0.9499 extended lower last week. Downside momentum was unconvincing with bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Nevertheless, further decline is still expected this week as long as 0.8863 resistance holds, towards 0.8276/82 key support zone. On the upside, though, break of 0.8863 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 0.6935 (2015 ) should still be in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.6935 to 0.9263 from 0.8276 at 0.9715. Initial resistance could be seen around there as it’s close to 0.9799 (2008 high). In any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8276 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

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In the long term picture, rise form 0.6935 (2015 low) is still in progress. It could be resuming long term up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Decisive break of 0.9799 will target 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.


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