EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8498 last week, but failed to break through 55 D EMA (now at 0.8500) and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 0.8501) will extend the rise from 0.8396 short term bottom to 0.8529 support turned resistance. Nevertheless, On the downside, break of 0.8493 support will suggest that the corrective recovery has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting of 0.8396 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 0.8764 to 0.8497 from 0.8643 at 0.8376. Sustained break there will target 161.8% projection at 0.8211 next. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8643 resistance holds, even in case of stronger rebound.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

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