EUR/GBP gyrated inside range of 0.8712/8844 last week and outlook is unchanged, staying mixed. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.8844 will resume the rebound from 0.8620. That will also revive the case of larger bullish reversal. EUR/GBP should target target 0.8967 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.8963) first. However, break of 0.8679 minor support should completion of the rebound form 0.8620. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for this support. Whole decline from 0.9305 will likely be resuming too.
In the bigger picture, for now, the decline from 0.9305 is seen as a leg inside the long term consolidation pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). Such consolidation pattern could extend further. Hence, in case of strong rally, we’d be cautious on strong resistance by 0.9304/5 to limit upside. Meanwhile, in another decline attempt, we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.
In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.
