EUR/JPY’s rise from 114.42 extended to as high as 119.90 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Such rise is seen as at least correcting the fall from 122.87 Further rise should be seen to 121.14 resistance next. Sustained break there will target 122.87 key resistance next. On the downside, below 118.85 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rise will remain in favor as long as 117.11 support holds.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. EUR/JPY is staying well inside falling channel and below falling 55 week EMA. Deeper fall could be seen to retest 109.48 (2016 low) next. On the upside, break of 122.87 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 124.84), this is the preferred case.