EUR/JPY’s fall last week suggests that corrective rise from 122.37 has completed at 125.08 already. But as a temporary low was formed at 123.01, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, below 123.01 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 127.07 at 122.23. Firm break there will confirm resumption of whole corrective fall from 127.07, and target 61.8% retracement at 119.25, which is close to 119.31 key support. On the upside, though, break of 125.08 will target a retest on 127.07 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 119.31 support holds. Break of 127.07 will target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.42 at 128.67 next. However, firm break of 119.31 will argue that the rise from 114.42 has completed and turn focus back to this low.

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In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Another rising leg could have started for 137.49 resistance and above.


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