EU/JPY’s decline from 133.44 accelerated to as low as 127.96 last week and there is no clear sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 127.91 first. Break there will target 126.58 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 129.97 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, further fall will remain in favor in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.
In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Long term outlook will remain neutral until breakout from the range of 109.03/137.49.
