Tue, Jan 31, 2023 @ 22:46 GMT

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY rose further to as high as 144.71 last week, and break of 144.26 indicates resumption of larger up trend. But as a temporary top was formed, initial bias is turned neutral for consolidation this week. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 138.68 support. On the upside, break of 144.71 will target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 144.26 from 133.38 at 145.67 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Further rally is in favor as long as 133.38 support holds. Next target is 149.76 (2015 high). However, sustained break of 133.38 will be a sign of medium term bearish reversal and turn focus to 124.37 support for confirmation.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) is seen as in the third leg. Further rally would be seen to 149.76 resistance (2014 high) and above. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 129.46) holds.

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