EUR/JPY rose to 142.84 last week but was rejected by 142.92 resistance and 55 day EMA and dropped sharply since then. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 137.37 support first. Break there will resume whole decline from 148.38 to 135.40 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 139.54 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 142.84 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 138.64) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, firm break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Sustained break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.
In the long term picture, outlook will stay bullish as long as 134.11 resistance turned support holds (2021 high). Sustained break of 149.76 (2014 high) will open up further rally, as resumption of the rise from 94.11 (2012 low), towards 169.96 (2008 high).
