EUR/JPY stayed in range of 137.37/142.84 last week and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is mildly in favor. Break of 137.37 will resume the whole fall from 148.38 to 135.40 fibonacci level. On the upside, however, break of 142.84 will argue that the correction from 148.38 has completed at 137.37 already. Further rise would be seen to 146.71 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 138.87) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, firm break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Sustained break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.
In the long term picture, outlook will stay bullish as long as 134.11 resistance turned support holds (2021 high). Sustained break of 149.76 (2014 high) will open up further rally, as resumption of the rise from 94.11 (2012 low), towards 169.96 (2008 high).
