EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY edged higher again last week to 159.47 but retreated to 156.85. With subsequent recovery, initial bias is neutral this week first. Risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 159.47 short term top holds. Break of 156.85 will resume the corrective fall to 55 D EMA (now at 155.72) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 139.05 at 163.06. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest long term resistance at 169.96. This will remain the favored case as long as 151.39 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). Next target is 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 114.42 at 170.07 which is close to 169.96 (2008 high).

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