EUR/JPY stayed in sideway trading last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 134.39/48 resistance zone will confirm medium term up trend resumption. In that case, 141.04 resistance will be the next target. On the downside, though, decisive break of 131.38 support will confirm rejection from 134.20 fibonacci level and confirm near term reversal. And, in such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 127.55 key support level.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back to 114.84/124.08 support zone at least.
In the long term picture, at this point, there is no clear indication that rise from 109.03 is resuming that from 94.11. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping below 149.76 to extend range trading. Nonetheless, firm break of 149.76 will indicates strong underlying buying. In such case, EUR/JPY will target 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 109.03 at 164.68.
