EUR/JPY stayed in range of 169.69/172.36 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Corrective pattern from 173.87 could extend lower. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 172.36 will bring retest of 173.87 first. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 154.77 to retest 175.41 high.
In the bigger picture, considering current strong momentum as seen in the rally from 154.77, corrective pattern from 175.41 could have already completed. Decisive break of 154.77 will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, rejection by 175.41, followed by firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 169.27) will delay this bullish case.
In the long term picture, up trend fro 94.11 (2021 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32.
