EUR/JPY edged higher to 185.55 last week but retreated steeply since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and another rise is in favor as long as 182.60 support holds. Above 185.55 will target 186.31 projection level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 182.60 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 181.49) and below.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, upside could be capped by 186.31 on first attempt. Still, outlook will stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 172.58) holds, even in case of deep pullback. Sustained break of 186.31 will pave the way to 78.6% projection at 194.88 next.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 154.77 support holds.
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