EUR/JPY’s late rally and break of 183.80 resistance suggests that rebound from 180.78 is resuming. Initial bias is now on the upside this week. Firm break of 184.75 will confirm and target a retest on 186.86 high. For now, risk will stay mildly on the upside a long as 182.02 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 186.86 and some more consolidations would be seen. Nevertheless, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 175.61) holds, the larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) remains intact. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 154.77 support holds.
