EUR/USD dropped further lower to 1.1509 last week but formed a short term bottom there and rebound. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidation and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But we’d expect strong resistance from 1.1822/1995 resistance zone to limit upside and bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 1.1509 will resume the decline from 1.2555 and target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

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In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Focus will now turn to 1.1553 support. Sustained break there would raise the chance of retesting 1.0339 low. It’s early to tell, but the chance of long term bullish reversal is fading.

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