EUR/USD edged lower to 1.1528 last week but lost momentum again. Initial bias is neutral this week first, but further fall is still in favor as long as 1.1639 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.1528 will resume larger decline towards 1.1289 medium term fibonacci level. On the upside, break of 1.1639 resistance, however, will indicate short term bottoming. intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that rise from 1.0635 (2020 low) has completed at 1.2348. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Note also that rejection by 55 week EMA (1.1830) also carries medium term bearish implication. Firm break of 1.1289 will pave the way to retest 1.0635 low. On the upside, though, break of 1.1908 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.
In the long term picture, EUR/USD has possibly failed 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516) already. Long term outlook will remain neutral as sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low) is extending with another medium term fall. For now, we’d hold back from assessing the change of downside breakout, and monitor the momentum of the decline from 1.2348 first.
