EUR/USD’s decline last week suggests that corrective recovery from 0.9951 has completed at 1.0368, after rejection by channel resistance and 55 day EMA. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.9951 low first. Break will resume larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.0773 to 0.9951 from 1.0368 at 0.9860, and then 100% projection at 0.9546. On the upside, above 1.0121 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0368 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) resuming. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090 will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.8694.
