EUR/USD edged lower to 0.9863 last week, but formed a short term bottom there and rebounded. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 1.0174). Sustained break there will raise the chance of larger reversal, and target 1.0368 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.9863 will resume larger down trend.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0368 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is extending. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0635 support turned resistance holds.
