EUR/USD’s decline last week indicates that it’s already in correction to whole up trend from 0.9534. Rejection by 4 hour 55 EMA maintains near term bearishness and favors more downside. Break of 1.0668 temporary low this week will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0463. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 1.0790 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.1032 high instead.
In the bigger picture, the rally from 0.9534 low (2022 low) is a medium term up trend rather than a correction. Further rise is in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.0482 support holds.
In the long term picture, while it’s too early to call for long term trend reversal at this point, the strong break of 1.0635 support turned resistance (2020 low) should at least turn outlook neutral. Focus will turn to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1189). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness.
