EUR/USD recovered after edging lower to 1.0532 last week, but failed to extend gain above 1.0690. Initial bias remains neutral first. While corrective fall from 1.1032 might still extend, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0463 to bring reversal. On the upside, break of 1.0690 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0803 resistance and above.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0482 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) should continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. However, sustained break of 1.0482 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0106, even as a corrective pull back.
In the long term picture, while it’s too early to call for long term trend reversal at this point, the strong break of 1.0635 support turned resistance (2020 low) should at least turn outlook neutral. Focus will turn to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1165). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness.