EUR/USD’s up trend resumed last week by breaking 1.1094 resistance decisively. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 1.1273 fibonacci level. Firm break there will target 161.8% projection of 1.0634 to 1.1011 from 1.0832 at 1.1442 next. On the downside, below 1.1160 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, as rise from 0.9534 extends, focus is now on 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next. Meanwhile, outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 1.0832 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.
In the long term picture, focus stays on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1135). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be affirm the case of long term bullish reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.
