EUR/USD reversed after edging higher to 1.1016. With breach of 1.0851 support, a short term top should be in place on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 1.0766). On the upside, however, break of 1.1016 will resume the rise from 1.0447 to retest 1.1274 high instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. It’s still early to call for bullish trend reversal with the pair staying inside falling channel. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1081) and break of 1.1274 resistance will raise the chance of reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.
. On the upside, however, break of 1.1016 will resume the rise from 1.0447 to retest 1.1274 high instead.){kind=link}