EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1213 extended to as low as 1.0760 last week before forming a temporary bottom there and recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Further decline is expected as long as 1.0871 resistance holds. Below 1.0760 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0740. Firm break there will target 1.0601 support next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.0871 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.0962).
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 (2023 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low), with fall from 1.1213 as the third leg. Downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 at 1.0404, to bring up trend resumption at a later stage.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 (2022 low). But for now, EUR/USD is struggling to sustain above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1011). Outlook is neutral at best at this point.
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