EUR/USD’s stayed in range above 1.1644 last week and outlook is unchanged. Further fall is in favor as long as 1.1819 resistance holds. Break of 1.1644 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.1675) will indicate medium term topping at 1.1917, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Further fall should then be seen to 1.1390 support. Nevertheless, break of 1.1819 will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.1917 high instead.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0176 (2025 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low). 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916 was already met. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.1390 support holds, and firm break of 1.2000 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.1390 will suggest that rise from 1.0176 has already completed and bring deeper fall to 55 W EMA (now at 1.1231).
In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.
 will indicate medium term topping at 1.1917, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Further fall should then be seen to 1.1390 support. Nevertheless, break of 1.1819 will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.1917 high instead.){kind=link}