EUR/USD’s rise from 1.1467 extended higher last week and the development solidifies that correction from 1.1917 ha already completed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 1.1917 high. For now, further rally is expected as long as 1.1614 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1360) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.
In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.
