GBP/JPY edged higher to 139.23 last week but quickly retreated. Initial bias remain neutral this week first. Further rise is in favor as long as 136.62 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, firm break of 139.73 will resume whole rise form 123.94. Next target will be 100% projection of 123.94 to 135.74 from 129.27 at 141.07. However, firm break of 136.62 will turn intraday bias back to the downside to extend the consolidation pattern from 139.73.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is currently seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

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In the longer term picture, repeated rejection by 55 month EMA indicate long term bearishness in the cross. Down trend from 251.09 (2007 high) should eventually resume through 122.75 to 116.83 (2011 low) and below. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 144.90) will dampen this view and could open up further rise back to 195.86 (2015 high).


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