GBP/JPY defended 149.03 key support and rebounded strongly last week. The development suggests that fall from 152.28 has completed. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside for 152.82 resistance first. Sustained break there will suggest that correction from 156.05 has completed, and turn near term outlook bullish for retesting this high. On the downside, break of 150.70 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 149.03 key support instead.
In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 149.03 support holds, such rise would still resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 149.03 support will indicate rejection by 156.59. Fall from 156.05 would be at least correcting the whole rise from 123.94. Deeper fall would be seen back 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 156.05 at 143.78 first.
In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA was an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high). However, rejection by 156.69 will invalidate the bullish signal and keep long term outlook neutral first.
