GBP/JPY recovered last week but there is no change in the outlook. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further fall is mildly in favor. On the downside, break of 152.35 will resume the fall from 158.19 to148.93 key support next. Nevertheless, break of 154.70 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 158.19 high instead.
In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Further rally is still expected as long as 148.93 support holds. However, firm break of 148.93 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and bring deeper fall back to 142.71 resistance turned support first.
In the longer term picture, GBP/JPY could have set up a long term up trend already with break of 156.69 resistance, and the stay above 55 month EMA. Current rise from 122.75 could target 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93.
