Wed, Feb 01, 2023 @ 00:15 GMT

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY rose to 166.29 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 166.31 resistance will argue that larger up trend might be ready to resume. Retest of 168.67 should be seen next. On the downside, however, break of 164.16 will turn bias to the downside, to extend the corrective pattern from 168.67 with another fall.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 could be the third leg the the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Further rise will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 150.75) holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. will pave the way to 195.86 (2015 high).

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