GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY dived to as low as 148.93 last week but rebounded strongly since then. The development suggest that corrective fall from 169.10 has completed after drawing support from 151.84 long term fibonacci level. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 169.10 high. On the downside, though, break of 155.63 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 148.93 low again.

In the bigger picture, strong support from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 169.10 at 151.84 suggests that price actions from 169.10 are developing into a corrective pattern only. That is, rise from 123.94 (2020 low) should resume at a later stage. This will now remain the favored case as long as 148.93 support holds.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 150.40) holds, rise from 122.75 could still extend higher at a later stage. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA will ague that whole rise has completed, and open up deeper fall back to 116.83/122.75 support zone.

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