GBP/JPY recovered after initial fall to 155.33 last week, but upside is kept well below 162.32 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 155.33 will resume the fall from 172.11 to 153.70 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 162.32 will argue that such decline has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 163.55) and above.
In the bigger picture, as long as 153.02 support turned resistance holds, decline from 172.11 medium term top is expected to continue to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 172.11 at 153.70. Sustained break there will raise the change of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 142.34. Nevertheless, break of 153.02 support turned resistance will argue that the decline has completed, and retain medium term bullishness.
In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 152.38) holds, rise from 122.75 could still extend higher at a later stage.
