GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY failed to break through 183.99 resistance last week and reversed after hitting 183.23. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week, to extend the corrective pattern from 183.99, back towards 176.29 support. On the upside, decisive break of 183.99 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, as long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is expected to continue through 183.99 at a later stage, towards 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 172.11 will argue that larger correction is already underway.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) in still in progress to retest 195.86 (2015 high). Based on current momentum, break of 195.86 is in favor. But strong resistance could still be seen from 61.8% retracement of 251.09 (2007 high) to 116.83 (2011 low) at 199.80 to limit upside on first attempt.

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