GBP/JPY edged higher again to 186.75 last week but the retreated to 183.35. With subsequent recovery, initial bias is neutral this week first. But risk will stays on the downside as long as 186.75 resistance holds. Break of 183.35 will resume the correction from 186.75 short term top to 55 D EMA (now at 181.17) and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 176.29 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.
In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) in still in progress to retest 195.86 (2015 high). Based on current momentum, break of 195.86 is in favor. But strong resistance could still be seen from 61.8% retracement of 251.09 (2007 high) to 116.83 (2011 low) at 199.80 to limit upside on first attempt.
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