Despite dipping to 200.54 last week, GBP/JPY quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral first. Current development suggests that price action from 205.30 is merely a corrective move, and larger rally is still in progress. On the upside, break of 204.22 will suggest that rise from 184.35 is resuming through 205.30 towards 208.09 high. However, break of 200.54 will extend the fall from 205.30 to 197.47 key structural support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 197.47 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
