GBP/JPY edged higher to 216.05 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 216.05 will extend the rebound from 210.43 to retest 216.58 high. On the downside, break of 212.36 will bring deeper fall back towards 210.43 instead.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 207.57) will argue that it’s already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.
In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 188.85) holds.
