GBP/USD edged lower to 1.2065 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and some more consolidative trading could be seen. But outlook stays bearish as long as 1.2467 resistance holds. Rebound form 1.1409 should have completed. On the downside, break of 1.2065 will pave the way to retest 1.1409 low. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 1.2467 will turn bias to the upside for 1.2647 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.1409 is strong, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) should still resume sooner or later. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.3514 at 1.0273. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3514 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

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In the longer term picture, long term outlook remains clearly bearish, as it’s held well below long term falling trend line that started back at 2116 (2007 high). Rejection by 55 month EMA also affirmed bearishness. Break of 1.1946 will target 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.3514 at 1.0273.


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