GBP/USD gyrated lower to 1.2880 last wee but quickly recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.2880 should turn intraday bias to the downside for retesting 1.2675, as well as 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.3482 at 1.2690. On the upside, however, break of 1.3175 will resume the rebound from 1.2675 to retest 1.13482 high.
In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3514 key resistance. Decisive break there should also come with sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.3307). That should confirm medium term bottoming at 1.1409. Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.4376 resistance and above. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.3514 will maintain medium term bearishness for another lower below 1.1409 at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, GBP/USD is staying below decade long trend line from 2.1161 (2007 high). It also struggles to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.3307). Long term outlook stays bearish for now, despite bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD.
