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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD rose further to as high as 1.4240 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations first. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3828 support holds. Break of 1.4240 will extend the up trend from 1.1409 to 1.4376 long term resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1.4748. However, firm break of 1.3828 will bring deeper correction to 1.2675/3482 support zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1409 medium term bottom is in progress. Further rally would be seen to 1.4376 resistance and above. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications and target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1409 (2020 low) at 1.5134. On the downside, break of 1.3482 resistance turned support is needed to be first indication of completion of the rise. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bullish even in case of deep pullback.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from there would target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Reaction from there would reveal whether rise from 1.1409 is just a correction, or developing into a long term up trend.

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