GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s strong rebound last week suggests that corrective pullback from 1.2859 has completed at 1.2612 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.2859 first. Firm break there will resume the rally from 1.2298 and target 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2859 from 1.2612 at 1.2959. Decisive break there would prompt upside acceleration through 1.3141 to 100% projection at 1.3173. On the downside, below 1.2740 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern which might still extend. Break of 1.2612 support will bring another fall to 1.2298 support and possibly below. Nevertheless, break of 1.2892 resistance will argue that larger up trend from 1.0351 might be ready to resume through 1.3141.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.0351 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. But momentum of the rebound from 1.3051 argues GBP/USD is merely in consolidation, rather than trend reversal. Range trading is likely between 1.0351/4248 for some more time.

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