USD/CAD edged lower to 1.2629 last week as down trend resumed. But it quickly lost momentum and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Outlook will stays bearish as long as 1.2797 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.2629 will resume the larger down trend from 1.4667 to 100% projection of 1.3172 to 1.2688 from 1.2957 at 1.2473 next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.2797 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for rebound, to 1.2957 resistance.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.
In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stay. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.
