USD/CAD’s down trend continued last week and met 100% projection of 1.2880 to 1.2363 from 1.2653 at 1.2136 already. There is no clear sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.2061 long term cluster support next. We’d be cautious on strong support from there to bring reversal. On the upside, break of 1.2265 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. However, sustained break of 1.2061 will sustained break of 1.2061 will carry larger bearish implications. Next near term target will be 161.8% projection at 1.1816.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.2653 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound. Also, sustained break of 1.2061 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.
In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stay. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, sustained break of 1.2061 will be a sign of long term bearishness. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.
