USD/CAD’s up trend continued last week and hit as high as 1.3611. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for long term fibonacci level at 1.3650. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3925. On the downside, below 1.3407 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. Sustained break there will target 1.4667 (2020 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.