USD/CAD rebounded after edging lower to 1.3685, but upside was limited well below 1.4014 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and near term outlook stays bearish. On the downside, break of 1.3685 will resume whole fall from 1.4791 towards 1.3418 support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.
In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3485) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term down trend should then follow.
