USD/CAD’s fall from 1.4791 continued last week and broke 61.8% projection of 1.4414 to 1.3749 from 1.4014 at 1.3603. There is no sign of bottoming yet, and initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection at 1.3349. On the upside, through, break of 1.3650 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.
In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3489) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term down trend should then follow.
